Forex | FX Operator | Currency Trading

Using ZigZag indicator (7,3,3). Wave starts March 17, 2008. USDJPY is stalling on 108.3 resistance currently. Looks like it's following the textbook wave. Or is it a wrong wave? Any comments?

Me not so good. But I think (think only): Week Aug 24-29, 2008.

Technical:
Price converging into a weeny triangle this week. Can't hold on for long before a inevitable break next week. Bulls and bears indicator also converging & loosing momentum. Daily MACD shows shorts in play. Overall still slightly bullish so far with prices hovering above EMA55 yellow line. Next week, this pair's gonna be wild as it'll break either way. Probably gonna be steep!

Fundamental:
Prelim GDP this week didn't show sign of US economy hitting further into recession levels. With no market moving news to end this week, I think I can assume that the bears are in the background for now. Oil & Yen in play now depressing USD. Coming up: NFP next Friday.

Opinion:
Ideally, this pair will probably follow a similar course as (1). But (2) or (3) have potential to be become reality if NFP < forecast. Big breakout comes next Friday after NFP? Nah, probably Tuesday or Wednesday. NFP will serve more a confirmation of near term trend and this upcoming breakout direction.
Let's see what happens next week.

Follow Up:
Base on last picture,line 1 and 2 are a goners. Line (3) is a reality hitting weekly S3 level. NFP proved negative.

Techincal:
Bulls went hiding, Bears in full force. MACD going down down down...with still lots of room to fall. Indicators favors short position.

Fundamental:
News of global recession risk, "the worst is not over", etc starts reappearing on headlines after a month's absence.
NFP (Aug) shows its real self after July's mini 'recovery' from Jun.

So:
With no good news, no positive indicators, Line 1 seems too good to be true for the time being.
If there is a recovery, the bounce should follow Line 2 with recovery coming early next week before reality sets in again.
Otherwise, based on present details, the likely course is Line 3. Next week, Trade balance and Retail sales may be pivotal to its direction.