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Week 36 Technical Outlook on EURJPY and GBPUSD

Monday, 01 September 2008

Euro-Yen Weekly Chart

Euro-Yen Forex Outlook
Weekly	ADX continues to move higher as the pair hit as low as 159.20 near key support at 158.59/67. Trend remains on the downside as momentum now into 'oversold zone'. The pair likely to slide lower towards the nearest support with firm break could see further downwards to 155.61 area. Resistance now at 160.83 and 161.74/86 before important resistance level at 163.31.

Daily	ADX stays above 40 as trend remains strongly on the downside with negative momentum. Further downside is expected with next support at confluence 158.59/67 before 158.29. Medium term resistance at 160.69 with break above 161.60 would see price re-test 22 August low at 163.09.

4-Hour	Short term price momentum is 'oversold' with retracement likely to be seen before resumption of downward movement. Resistance now at 160.27 with break above 160.93 should see higher towards 162. Break below 159.38 should re-test last week's low.

Resistance Levels
169.95/99	Historic High; Psychological Barrier
167.65	78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level 159.20 - 169.95
165.84	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level 159.20 - 169.95
165.61/64	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 158.59; 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 151.70
165.43	Weekly Pivot R3
164.50	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level 159.20 - 169.95
164.10/27	Weekly Pivot R2; 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 158.59
163.31	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level 159.20 - 169.95
162.93/98	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 158.59; 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 151.70
161.74/86	23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level 159.20 - 169.95; Weekly Pivot R1
160.83	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 151.70
160.53	Weekly Pivot
Support Levels
159.20	2008 Week 35 Low
158.59/67	05 May Low; 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 151.70
158.29	Weekly Pivot S1
156.96	Weekly Pivot S2
155.61	78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level 169.95 - 151.70
154.72	Weekly Pivot S3
151.70	20 March Low

Pound-Dollar Weekly Chart

Pound-Dollar Forex Outlook
Weekly	Cable continues to come under attack as price now below long term 61.8% Fibonacci level which now turns as resistance. Further downside could be seen towards 1.7913/29 before 1.7421. Resistance now at 1.8303/29/32 and as long price stay below 1.9398, the downtrend is likely to continue.

Daily	Daily momentum is into red zone but price is likely to head lower as long ADX maintains above 40. Downside resistance at last week low at 1.8172 before 1.8070. Resistance medium term at 1.8409 with break above 1.8555 would focus back to the topside towards 1.8792.

4-Hour	Intra-day time frames with signs of bullish divergence suggest that break above 1.8409 would confirm the short term retracement. Momentum is down with support same as the daily.

Resistance Levels
2.1160	09 November 2007 High
2.0521	78.6% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.1160
2.0190	23.6% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.7049
2.0156	15 July High
2.0019	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.1160
1.9731	78.6% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.0156
1.9666	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.1160
1.9590	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.7049
1.9398	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.0156
1.9395	23.6% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.3681
1.9313	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.1160
1.9164	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.0156
1.9105	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.7049
1.8930	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.0156
1.8902	Weekly Pivot R3
1.8877	23.6% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.1160
1.8745	Weekly Pivot R2
1.8619/40	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.7049; 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement 1.8172 - 2.0156
1.8486	Weekly Pivot R1
1.8303/29/32	38.2% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.3681; Weekly Pivot; 100.0% Fibonacci Extension H2.1160 L1.9336 R2.0156
Support Levels
1.8070	Weekly Pivot S1
1.7913/29	Weekly Pivot S2; 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.7049
1.7876	138.2% Fibonacci Extension H2.1160 L1.9336 R2.0397
1.7635/54	138.2% Fibonacci Extension H2.1160 L1.9336 R2.0156; Weekly Pivot S3
1.7446	161.8% Fibonacci Extension H2.1160 L1.9336 R2.0397
1.7421	50.0% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.3681
1.7205	161.8% Fibonacci Extension H2.1160 L1.9336 R2.0156
1.7049	28 November 2005 Low
1.6538	61.8% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.3681
1.5282	78.6% Fibonacci Retracement 2.1160 - 1.3681
1.3681	12 June 2001 Low

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